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Is NYC’s Real Estate Bubble Cracking?

Is NYC’s Real Estate Bubble Cracking?

I read the NY Times article this weekend “Worrisome Pileup of $100 Million Homes” and wondered if the problem was real (or how real). After watching the “The Big Short,” how could you not?   Interestingly, the number of advertisers marketing real estate has declined a statistically significant amount in the first four months of the year – online and in print. The dip is most pronounced in NYC and also especially strong with firms selling the most expensive listings.  For example, here in NYC the number of real estate advertisers in magazines, newspapers, and online are all down around the same, 10-12%.  Major firm advertising is down 26%+ YTD through April.  Advertising in the broader tri-state (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) market was also down, but much less, just 4-7%.

 

Number of real estate advertisers online. 

This is both firms and individual properties placing ads online.

 

Region

2015

2016

% Change

Jan-Apr

Tri-State

795

737

-7%

Jan-Apr

NYC only

497

438

-12%

Jan-Apr

Big NYC firms *

73

21

-71%

 

Number of real estate ad pages in magazines and newspapers. 

 

Region

2015

2016

% Change

Jan-Apr

Tri-State

2,340

2,251

-4%

Jan-Apr

NYC only

1,799

1,615

-10%

Jan-Apr

Big NYC firms *

678

499

-26%

 

* Major brands Corcoran, Stribling, Halstead, Sotheby’s, Luxury Portfolio, Douglas Elliman

Methodology:

This looks at advertising placed in NY/NJ/CT or NYC media specifically in Jan-Apr 2016.