When politicos think “battleground state,” Ohio or Florida have historically leapt to mind. With their passing increasingly into “safe GOP” territory, the “Blue Wall” states of the upper Midwest have entered into the conversation. However, in the last several election cycles Pennsylvania has emerged as a potential bellwether state– a cross section of the national electorate indicative of the political direction in which the country is headed.
In the 2022 midterms, Democrat Josh Fetterman saw off his GOP opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, in order to keep The Keystone State US Senate delegation “blue.” Now it is Bob Casey’s turn to hold onto his seat in what looks likely to be a good election cycle for Republicans. He is facing off against Republican financier Dave McCormick- who lost in the GOP US Senate primary to Dr. Oz in 2022.
YTD, when looking at ad spend on broadcast and local cable MediaRadar CMAG has monitored $33M on airings in the Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Wilkes-Barre-Scranton, Harrisburg-Lancaster, Johnstown-Altoona & Erie DMAs. 63% of the spending is concentrated in just Philadelphia & Pittsburgh.
The top Democrat spender is “Bob Casey for Senate, Inc.” which has aired $11.6M in the TV media mentioned above. In a distant second is the Dem-aligned PAC “Duty and Honor” that has released approximately $4M in ad spend while “WinSenate” has been up on the air with $1.1M in spending.
Turning to the Republicans, “KeyStone Renewal PAC” has aired $8.6M in TV ad dollars supporting McCormick’s candidacy while the PAC “One Nation” was the second-highest spender with $3.1M in spending on PA airwaves. Coming in a close third amongst GOP ad sponsors is joint buys from “Friends of Dave McCormick & National Republican Senatorial Committee” with $3M in ad spend.
What can MediaRadar CMAG report in ad reservations between now and election day? A whopping $126M on broadcast & local cable. Democrats compose 55% of this figure versus 45% for the Republicans.
The top Democrat sponsors this upcoming fall? “WinSenate” ups their current spend dramatically with $46M in ad reservations while “Bob Casey for Senate, Inc.” has booked $14.4M in TV ad spend. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee slots into 3rd position with $8.3M while Duty & Honor has booked $6.6M.
The GOP saturates PA TV screens this fall as well, but to a lesser degree. “KeyStone Renewal PAC” remains the top sponsor with $23M in ad buys while Senate Leadership Fund has $18M in ad reservations. “Friends of Dave McCormick,” this time without NRSC money, comes in 3rd with $11.3M in future ad spend while “One Nation” has reserved $7.1M in TV ad inventory.
Republicans pay lip service to the importance of this race- and PA may very well determine the presidency– but their ad spend reveals they think they have better pickup opportunities elsewhere. Though the polling gap has closed, Bob Casey remains a popular incumbent, McCormick is dogged by claims he is a carpetbagger and polling consistently shows the incumbent enjoys a lead outside the MOE.
